Newsletter

WHAT TRUMP’S PRIOR ADMINISTRATION TELLS US ABOUT IMMIGRATION IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

Regardless of personal opinions, Trump has secured the 2024 presidential election and will serve another four years. What does this mean for immigration policy? By examining his previous term, we can gain insights into what lies ahead.

TRUMP’S FIRST SHOT AT IMMIGRATION 2017-2021

The first Trump administration was marked by significant changes in immigration policy. According to a 2022 report by the Migration Policy Institute, Trump enacted 472 administrative changes to the immigration system. These changes included narrowing approvals for humanitarian protection, increasing enforcement and blocking asylum access for many individuals. Although the promise to build a wall along the Mexico border was not fulfilled, arrests of non-citizens without prior criminal records doubled from 14% in 2016 to 32% in 2020 and deportations increased from 90,000 in 2016 to 181,000 in 2020.¹

The administration also implemented stringent public charge regulations and health insurance requirements for new immigrants. ² Additionally, the Trump administration targeted the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. The program, implemented under the Obama administration, was critical in providing undocumented minors the ability to work and go to college. DACA applicants, referred to as “Dreamers”, have obtained college degrees in many fields including medicine, education, business and law. Dreamers contribute almost $14 billion to the U.S. economy, annually.³ However, the Trump administration did not agree with the program and started its attemptto dismantle it almost immediately. Due to ongoing litigation, additional candidates have been unable to apply. The future of the program is uncertain, with a pending appeal of the Biden administration unlikely to succeed. ⁴ If DACA is dismantled, the lives of thousands of individuals will be upended. ⁵

1 Jessica Bolter, Emma Israel and Sarah Pierce, Migration Policy Institute, “Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration During the Trump Presidency”, (February 2022), https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/mpi-trump-at-4-report-final.pdf, p. 4
2 Ibid, pp. 5
3 Fwd.us (October 31,2024), DACA Court Case Updates Summary of Litigation and Potential Supreme Court Case, https://www.fwd.us/news/daca-court-case
4 Ibid.
5 Camilo Montoya-Galvez, (October 10, 2024), CBS News, ‘Appeals court weighs fate of DACA protections for 500,000 “Dreamers” brought to U.S. as children’ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/daca-appeals-court-dreamers-deportation-protections/

Furthermore, the Trump administration issued travel bans for certain Muslim countries, targeted sanctuary cities by withholding federal grants, separated children from parents held in custody, narrowed the scope of prosecutorial discretion, increased enforcement on buses and trains, expanded expedited removal, deported Venezuelans to third countries, created a denaturalization section and a host of other actions that collectively had a chilling effect on immigration. ⁶

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS?

While some of Trump’s previous plans were defeated in litigation, we can expect that he will revisit and intensify his efforts. Expected actions include; securing the border (perhaps revisiting the border wall project), increasing and expediting the removal of individuals with deportation orders, targeting sanctuary cities, eliminating programs such as humanitarian parole and DACA, not extending TPS to certain groups, scaling back approvals of non-immigrant visas and possibly a restructuring of the H-1B visa category, including eliminating work authorization for H-1B visa dependents. ⁷

Trump appointed Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller was instrumental during Trump’s prior term in establishing immigration policies. He is the lead architect in the plan for mass deportations. ⁸ Trump has also appointed Tom Homan as his “border czar”. Tom Homan is a former head of the Immigration Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) and was responsible for immigration crackdowns from January 2017 to June 2018. The appointments of Homan and Miller, send the message that mass deportations are set to become a reality in the coming administration. ⁹

These are challenging times in the U.S., marked by suspicion and division. However, through activism and rigorous advocacy, the rights of the most vulnerable in our society will continue to be defended.
This journal will provide monthly updates on immigration-related matters. For comments and suggestions on future articles, please send your message to [email protected].

6 Jessica Bolter, Emma Israel and Sarah Pierce, Migration Policy Institute, “Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration During the Trump Presidency”, February 2022, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/mpi-trump-at-4-report-final.pdf, pp. 10-12, 43, 45-47,52 and 61
7 Anderson, Stuart, Forbes, (September 17, 2024), “Trump Immigration Policy Could Mean Misery For H-1B Spouses”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2024/09/17/trump-immigration-policy-could-mean-misery-for-h-1b-spouses/
8 Treene, Alana, CNN, (November 11, 2024), “ Trump expected to announce Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy”,
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/stephen-miller-trump-administration/index.html
9 Treisman, Rachel, NPR (November 11, 2024) “What to know about Tom Homan, the former ICE head returning as Trump’s ‘border czar”, Trump announces former ICE official Tom Homan as border czar : NPR